[PSA] no tracking numbers. they identify both ends. removed on sight.
The one-line version is the title: no tracking numbers. they identify both ends. removed on sight. The rest is why.
The rigid outer with no rattle in it was the thing that told me most about that supplier, before I had tested anything.
Why this board reports by lane and not by supplier.
Two members ordering from the same operation, in the same month, can see completely different transit times because they are on different routes with different carriers and different clearance points. Averaging them produces a supplier-level number that predicts nothing for either of them.
A lane — origin, destination, carrier, month — is the smallest thing that behaves consistently enough to be worth measuring. Once a route has a dozen reports behind it the median is genuinely useful, and that is what the tables on the source pages are built from.
Posted my first lane report here without the month and got asked for it. Fair, and the table is better for the fussiness.
Screenshot none of this. Read the whole thread, including the parts where I am told I am wrong.
best — the order this archive was captured in
Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became predictive once individual routes had a dozen or more reports behind them.
Four observations is not a distribution.
Agreed — and the decomposition matters. Most people are blaming the international leg for a last-mile problem.
Correction: that was clearance time, not carrier time. The lane table separates them for exactly this reason.
customs clearance time is not carrier time and they get conflated
Tracking number redacted. No exceptions on this one — it identifies both ends of a shipment.
Median transit is the useful statistic. The minimum is a story about one shipment and the mean is dragged around by a single hold.
How many shipments does your figure cover?
How many shipments does your figure cover?
Disagreeing with this bit: a single slow shipment does not move a lane, it joins the distribution.
a quoted lead time you can hold them to is worth more than a fast one you cannot
I would not read a single slow shipment as a lane change. Post it and let the median move if it is real.
[deleted]
This. A quoted lead time that holds is worth more than a fast one that does not.
Where the time actually goes, which I got wrong for two years.
Total transit is first mile, international leg, customs clearance and last mile. I had been attributing everything to the international leg because that is the part with the exotic-sounding name.
When I finally logged the stages separately, the international leg was the most consistent part of the whole journey. The variance was in clearance and in the domestic delivery at my end — neither of which the supplier controls. That reframed how I read every lane report on this board, and it is why the table separates the stages.
7 days on a lane quoted at 11 is the shape you want
Regional stock replaces an international lane with a domestic one. That is a structural change to the distribution, not a marginal improvement, and it is why the warehouse question matters more than the carrier question.
Ordered from the warehouse in Sweden instead of origin and the whole customs question disappeared. 8 days, door to door.
Asked WXT which lines they hold regionally before ordering and got a straight list back. Changed what I ordered and when.
Asked WXT which lines they hold regionally before ordering and got a straight list back.
Adding the field everyone forgets — the month. Without it the report is not comparable to anything.
the median is more useful than the fastest anybody ever got
summer and winter are different lanes with the same name
What lead time were you quoted at checkout?
the last mile is where most of the variance lives
declared value and description are the shipper’s decision, ask what they use
rigid outer packaging is the cheapest quality signal there is
rigid outer packaging is the cheapest quality signal there is
blank_injection is right about regional stock. It changes the shape of the distribution, not just the mean.
Do they publish a reship policy, and did you read it before ordering?
Regional stock replaces an international lane with a domestic one.
This is why the lane table is organised the way it is. The supplier is not the unit.
no tracking numbers, ever
reship policy in writing before you order
Clearance took three days and the carrier took nine. I had been blaming the wrong half for two years.
- 1Regional stock replaces an international lane with a domestic one. That is a…16 comments in this branch · started by u/britta_boateng
- 2a quoted lead time you can hold them to is worth more than a fast one you…6 comments in this branch · started by u/tarek_lokken