u/joaquin_stanescu

Same injection day each week, or has it drifted?

the scale is the least sensitive instrument you own

intention to treat versus completers changes the number substantially

the scale is the least sensitive instrument you own

if 1.0mg is working there is no prize for going up

Yes — time in range tells you about variability, which the average deliberately hides.

Agreed, and the glucose-dependence point is the reason the risk profile reads the way it does.

Continuous monitoring shows the shape: postprandial excursions, overnight behaviour and time in range. Two people with identical A1c can have very different distributions.

Are you measuring anything other than weight? Waist is usually the one that keeps moving.

Where did the time actually go — international leg, clearance, or last mile?

This. Intention-to-treat versus completer analysis routinely moves the headline by several points.

summer and winter are different lanes with the same name

Correction: SURMOUNT is the obesity programme and SURPASS is the diabetes one. The figure you quoted belongs to the other one.

origin, destination, carrier, month — post all four or the report is noise

STEP-1 averaged just under 15% at 68 weeks, so a 10% year is not a failure

if 0.25mg is working there is no prize for going up

STEP-1 ran 68 weeks and landed just under 15% mean body weight change on 2.4mg. It is an average of a wide distribution, not a target you have missed.

variability matters as much as the mean

This matches me almost exactly, right down to the early fullness showing up on the second day and being gone by the fourth.

A lane is an origin, a destination, a carrier and a season. Change any one and the distribution changes, which is why supplier-level shipping averages are close to meaningless.

Week 83: 20kg down, constipation basically gone since about week 4, and the honest headline is that nothing dramatic happened.

vikram_ferreira is describing the standard shape here and it matches the trial data better than most anecdotes do.

a mean is not a promise

6 days on a lane quoted at 7 is the shape you want

Right, and the diabetes programmes report glycaemic endpoints. Quoting an obesity trial result here is answering a different question.

Absolute or relative risk reduction?

Yes. Week 7 is when almost everybody writes the "is it still working" post, and almost everybody is fine.

How long was the randomised phase before any extension?

That is a packaging observation, not a transit observation. Worth posting, worth separating.

Quoted a figure here confidently, got asked whether it was ITT, went and checked, and it was not.

Adding the check nobody runs — the registered protocol is public and takes two minutes to compare.

This. A quoted lead time that holds is worth more than a fast one that does not.

Disagree.

This is the part I would underline for anyone skimming. Everything else in the thread is downstream of it.

Correct, and worth adding: the trial average is an average. Half the people in it did worse than 15% and were still on the drug.

Correcting myself: 15 days, not the figure I posted upthread. I was counting from the order date rather than dispatch.

the lane is the unit of analysis, not the supplier

Posted my first lane report here without the month and got asked for it. Fair, and the table is better for the fussiness.

the food noise going quiet is the effect people actually describe

This is the part I would underline for anyone skimming. Everything else in the thread is downstream of it.

the lane is the unit of analysis, not the supplier

Minor fix — the half-life is about a week, not about a day. The rest of your point stands.