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c/trialwatch·posted 1 months ago by u/draw_up_dizzy

three years of SURMOUNT threads, summarised so you do not have to read them

Stats

Something I keep coming back to: three years of SURMOUNT threads, summarised so you do not have to read them.

Cardiovascular outcome trials are powered for events, not for weight, and are typically run in a different population with different inclusion criteria. Reading a weight number out of one is reading a secondary endpoint.

The registered protocol is public. Comparing the registered primary endpoint with the reported one is a two-minute check and it is how outcome switching gets caught.

Relative risk reduction without the baseline rate is uninterpretable. A large relative reduction on a small absolute risk is a small absolute benefit.

If somebody has the same thing measured a different way, post it next to mine and we will see whether they agree.

115 up / 36 down76% upvoted16 commentsid 10vxp630 Jun 2026

16 comments

16 in this archive, depth 4

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/aurel_mwangi14 points·29 days ago

Open-label extensions lose their randomisation. Anybody still enrolled at week 104 is a selected group and the numbers describe that group.

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u/draw_up_dizzyOP10 points·29 days ago

read the endpoint before you read the headline

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u/yusuf_ramos15 points·28 days ago

Spent an evening with the appendix tables and found the subgroup detail that the entire thread had been speculating about.

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u/bastian_ekstrom12 points·28 days ago

The press release said that; the publication says something more hedged. Worth reading both.

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u/first_hundred6 points·28 days ago

a mean is not a promise

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u/marit_laurent8 points·27 days ago

a mean is not a promise

first_hundred is right about the programme names. They are different populations with different endpoints.

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u/joaquin_stanescu4 points·27 days ago

check who the comparator was before you compare anything

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u/draw_up_dizzyOP2 points·27 days ago·edited

discontinuation rate is a result, not a footnote

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[removed]3 points·27 days ago

[removed by moderator]

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u/renal_outcomes_rMOD7 points·28 days ago·edited

Retitled: the original quoted a diabetes endpoint as an obesity result.

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u/anders_kuusela2 points·27 days ago

Retitled: the original quoted a diabetes endpoint as an obesity result.

This is the distinction that would end about half the arguments on this board.

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u/gastric_emptying_g8 points·28 days ago·edited

Push back: an open-label extension tells you about the people who stayed. That is a different question.

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u/sofia_ferreira4 points·28 days ago

Quoted a figure here confidently, got asked whether it was ITT, went and checked, and it was not. Learned something.

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u/renal_outcomes_rnephro-curious3 points·28 days ago

SELECT was cardiovascular outcomes, not weight

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u/yara_mensah2 points·28 days ago

Same. A press release is a claim about a result; the publication is the result.

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u/nightowl_injector2 points·28 days ago

What did the confidence interval look like?

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