[Question] does carrier choice matter more than origin city
does carrier choice matter more than origin city. I would rather ask a basic question now than get this wrong quietly for two months.
Same lane, four orders, 12 to 16 days, all four within a couple of days of the quote. That consistency is the actual finding.
Regional stock replaces an international lane with a domestic one. That is a structural change to the distribution, not a marginal improvement, and it is why the warehouse question matters more than the carrier question.
Median transit is the useful statistic. The minimum is a story about one shipment and the mean is dragged around by a single hold.
Tell me where this is wrong. That is the useful part of posting it.
best — the order this archive was captured in
Total transit decomposes into first mile, international leg, clearance and last mile. Only the first two are meaningfully under the shipper’s control and most reported variance sits in the last two.
regional stock changes everything about transit
That is the quoted lead time, not the observed transit. Both belong in the report and they are different columns.
That is a packaging observation, not a transit observation. Worth posting, worth separating.
A quoted lead time is a commitment you can evaluate. Measuring quoted against actual across several orders tells you more about an operation than the raw speed does.
Where did the time actually go — international leg, clearance, or last mile?
Where did the time actually go — international leg, clearance, or last mile?
Agreed — and the decomposition matters. Most people are blaming the international leg for a last-mile problem.
That is a packaging observation, not a transit observation.
fridge_door_no is right about regional stock. It changes the shape of the distribution, not just the mean.
How many shipments does your figure cover?
Ordered from the warehouse in Denmark instead of origin and the whole customs question disappeared. 7 days, door to door.
Disagree. That is a customs hold, not a carrier delay, and lumping them together makes the lane table wrong.
Yes — regional stock is the single biggest variable and it barely gets mentioned outside this board.
customs clearance time is not carrier time and they get conflated
Not convinced by four data points. That is not a lane yet, it is an anecdote with a route attached.
Asked HJ which lines they hold regionally before ordering and got a straight list back. Changed what I ordered and when.
Yes — median rather than best case. The fastest anybody ever got is not a plan.
Four observations is not a distribution. The lane tables here only became predictive once individual routes had a dozen or more reports behind them.
The rigid outer with no rattle in it was the thing that told me most about that supplier, before I had tested anything.
A lane is an origin, a destination, a carrier and a season. Change any one and the distribution changes, which is why supplier-level shipping averages are close to meaningless.
the last mile is where most of the variance lives
This. A quoted lead time that holds is worth more than a fast one that does not.
This.
Adding the field everyone forgets — the month. Without it the report is not comparable to anything.
Split one order across two months on purpose to compare summer and winter. Four days apart, same carrier, same route.
- 1Yes — regional stock is the single biggest variable and it barely gets…7 comments in this branch · started by u/runa_cabrera
- 2That is a packaging observation, not a transit observation. Worth posting,…6 comments in this branch · started by u/fridge_door_no