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c/trialwatch·posted 5 months ago by u/anders_karlsen

why does nobody talk about SELECT

Readout Clean Column ×7 Long Haul ×3

why does nobody talk about SELECT. Searched first, found three threads that contradict each other, hence the post.

Spent an evening with the appendix tables and found the subgroup detail that the entire thread had been speculating about.

Relative risk reduction without the baseline rate is uninterpretable. A large relative reduction on a small absolute risk is a small absolute benefit.

The registered protocol is public. Comparing the registered primary endpoint with the reported one is a two-minute check and it is how outcome switching gets caught.

I will update this if the picture changes rather than quietly leaving it up.

2,424 up / 161 down94% upvoted17 commentsid 4fgpm024 Feb 2026

17 comments

12 in this archive, depth 3

best — the order this archive was captured in

u/valeria_karlsen270 points·5 months ago

Open-label extensions lose their randomisation. Anybody still enrolled at week 104 is a selected group and the numbers describe that group.

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u/camila_vasquez232 points·5 months ago

Started keeping the trial identifiers straight in a note file because I kept mixing up two programmes in the same sentence.

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u/milan_mensah-2 points·5 months ago

Cardiovascular outcome trials are powered for events, not for weight, and are typically run in a different population with different inclusion criteria. Reading a weight number out of one is reading a secondary endpoint.

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u/anders_karlsenOP1 point·5 months ago

Correcting myself upthread: I gave the completer figure and labelled it intention-to-treat.

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u/anders_karlsenOP1 point·5 months ago

a press release is not a publication

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u/rina_sobczak-2 points·5 months ago

Read a press release and the publication three months apart. The hedging in the second one was substantial.

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u/nordic_pricing157 points·5 months ago

Is that intention-to-treat or completers?

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u/kaia_cabrera116 points·5 months ago

A confidence interval is the range of effects compatible with the data. Two trials with overlapping intervals have not disagreed, whatever their point estimates look like next to each other.

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u/hub_opssite staff94 points·5 months ago

the confidence interval is the finding, the point estimate is the headline

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u/hazard_ratio_halMOD78 points·5 months ago

Added the trial identifier to the title so this thread is findable in two years.

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u/tomas_kimani34 points·5 months ago

Cosigning on discontinuation. It is a result about tolerability and it gets buried every time.

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u/injection_site_iris64 points·5 months ago

Intention-to-treat analyses everybody randomised regardless of what they did afterwards. Completer analyses only those who finished. The second is systematically more flattering and both are legitimate if labelled.

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About c/trialwatch

Clinical trial reading group. New readouts, protocol amendments, endpoint definitions, dropout handling, and the difference between a press release and a publication. Absolute risk reduction and number-needed-to-treat are house dialect here.

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